**Instructor:**Richard Sowers**Office:**301 Transportation Building**Phone:**(217) 333-6246**email:**r-sowers@illinois.edu. Note: this email may be forwarded to an off-campus email address.**Home page:**`https://math.uiuc.edu/~r-sowers`(this syllabus can be found there)**Office Hours:**M 10AM-1 PM and by appointment**Lectures meet:**TR 3:30-5:00 in 1320 Digital Computer Laboratory

**Coverage:** Our goal is to give you a basic understanding of probability and how it can be used to model
uncertainty. Coverage:

- Probability measures, discrete and continuous
- Random variables, discrete and continuous
- probability mass function, probability density functions, cumulative distribution functions
- expectations, means, and variances
- transformations of random variables
- joint random variables
- Limit theorems
- Statistics
- Confidence intervals
- Estimation and bias
- Hypothesis testing
- Maximum likelihood
**Final exam:**Final is 1:30-4:30 PM, Friday, December 14**Hourly exams:**September 25, October 30, and December 4. These exams will be given in class.**Quizzes:**During Lectures, there will be 12 surprise quizzes, each worth 10 points. The two lowest scores on these quizzes will be dropped.During Recitation/Discussion sections, there will be 7 surprise quizzes, each worth 10 points. Again, the lowest two will be dropped. Quizzes will regularly be motivated by homework problems or the previous lectures. There will be NO makeup quizzes (don't even ask). Note: a very useful habit in college is to be*in*your seat and thinking about a subject when a class starts. Although it is of course unsettling for the students, having surprise quizzes at the beginning of a class is a very simple way of ensuring that this happens.**Homework:**Homework will be assigned frequently and collected (or get them to my mailbox by the end of class). A random subset will be graded. Homework questions will be a preferrred source of quiz questions. Late homework will not under any circumstances be accepted (don't even try). I realize that the answers are in the back of the book. You will not get credit for simply repeating this answer; I want you to explain how to get this answer. I will attempt to announce new homework and other things on my Twitter Feed.- This class moves
*fast*. This is bad for the students and the instructor. However, we have to cover what we have to cover so that you won't be shortchanged in other classes which use this material. If you lose focus for more than about 2 days, it becomes*really*difficult to catch up. **Extra Credit:**There may be extra credit, as I see fit.**Notes:**Notes- 9_11_12
- 9_13_12
- 9_18_12
- 9_20_12
- 9_27_12
- 10_2_12
- 10_9_12
- 10_11_12
- 10_18_12
- 10_23_12
- 10_25_12
- 11_1_12
- 11_6_12
- 11_8_12
- 11_15_12
- 12_15_12
- Quiz 1
- Quiz 2
- Quiz 3
- Quiz 4
- Quiz 5
- Quiz 6
- Quiz 7
- Quiz 8
- Quiz 9
- Quiz 10
- Quiz 11
- Quiz 12
- Exam 1 (average was 132.9, standard deviation was 15.8)
- Exam 2 (average was 165, standard deviation was 23)
- Exam 3 (average was 67.9, standard deviation was 17.8)
- Final (average was 127, standard deviation was 24)

**Text:** Montgomery and Runger, *Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers*, 2011 (5th ed.), Wiley
**Course topics:** Analysis of Data (see also the Course Catalog Entry for IE300. We will understand how to think about probability models and how to draw conclusions from them.

**Grading policy:** Final grades will be determined on the basis
of the total numerical score (0-500 points) achieved on exams and homework. Relative
weights are:

Final: | 25% of grade |

Hourly Exam 1: | 15% of grade |

Hourly Exam 2: | 15% of grade |

Hourly Exam 3: | 15% of grade |

Weekly Quizzes: | 15% of grade |

Homework: | 15% of grade |

CRN and Section | Recitation time and Location | Recitation TA | TA Office hours and Location |
---|---|---|---|

51894 AD1 | M 5PM-5:50PM 101 TB | Sina Ansari | T 5PM-6PM 164 CSL |

51896 AD2 | W 5PM-5:50PM 101 TB | Farzad Yousefian | W 2PM-2:50PM 406 TB |

53219 AD3 | M 12PM-12:50PM 101 TB | John Nguyen | T 12:30 PM-1:30 PM 18 TB |

57756 AD4 | T 12PM-12:50PM 106B1 EH | Tao Zhu | W 4PM-5PM TB017 |

Assignment number | Problems | Due Date | Solutions |
---|---|---|---|

1 | 2-58, 2-62 | 9/4 | |

2 | 2-24, 2-48, 2-80, 2-82, 2-90, 2-92, 2-106, 2-114, 2-130, 2-148 | 9/20 | solutions |

3 | 3-16, 3-26, 3-68, 3-84, 3-86, 3-104, 3-120, 3-122, 3-132, 3-140 | 9/28 | solutions |

4 | 3-42, 3-66, 3-78, 3-92, 3-94, 3-102, 3-110, 3-124, 3-130, 3-136 | 10/4 | solutions |

5 | 3-72, 3-82, 3-118, 3-138, 3-174, 3-176, 4-6, 4-10, 4-26, 4-34 | 10/11 | solutions |

6 | 4-8, 4-22, 4-28, 4-36, 4-40, 4-44, 4-46, 4-50, 4-56, 4-62 | 10/18 | solutions |

7 | 4-68, 4-76, 4-90, 4-92, 4-94, 4-98, 4-100, 4-102, 4-106, 4-110 | 10/25 | solutions |

8 | 5-2, 5-6, 5-8, 5-10, 5-12, 5-16, 5-18, 5-22, 5-24, 5-26 | 11/1 | solutions |

9 | 3-86, 5-4, 5-14, 5-20, 5-30, 5-32, 5-34, 5-36, 5-38, 5-40 | 11/8 | solutions |

10 | 6-8, 7-6, 7-12, 7-16, 7-20, 7-24, 7-36, 7-38, 7-40, 7-42 | 12/4 | solutions |

11 | 9-22, 9-24, 9-26, 9-40, 9-42, 9-46, 9-48, 9-58, 9-76, 9-82 | 12/6 | solutions |

Richard Sowers University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Department of Industrial and Enterprise Engineering College of Engineering 117 Transportation Bldg, MC-238 104 S. Mathews Ave., Urbana, IL 61801 Department Main Office Telephone: (217) 333-2731 Fax (217) 244-5705 |
Department of Mathematics College of Liberal Arts and Sciences 273 Altgeld Hall, MC-382 1409 W. Green Street, Urbana, IL 61801 USA Department Main Office Telephone: (217) 333-3350 Fax (217) 333-9576 |