## ASRM 401/STAT 408 - Actuarial Statistics I (Spring 2020)

Instructor | Partha Dey |
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Contact | By and from "@illinois.edu" account. |

Videos | Subscribe to go.illinois.edu/asrm401_ch |

Q&A | MWF 9:00-9:50am through Zoom Meetings. |

Discussion | Usual times via Zoom Meetings led by Tavanaie Marvi Morteza. |

HW upload | Upload PDF files through Compass2g. |

Website | https://faculty.math.illinois.edu/~psdey/ASRM401SP20.html. Discussion Board and exam/hw scores are in the Compass2g website. |

Textbook |
Probability and Statistical Inference, by Hogg, Tanis and Zimmerman, 9th edition. A free ebook A Probability Course for the Actuaries by Marcel Finan. Another ebook with many sample exams Study Manual for Exam P by Krzysztof Ostaszewski. |

Examines elementary theory of probability, including independence, conditional probability, and Bayes' theorem; combinations and permutations; random variables, expectations, and probability distributions; joint and conditional distributions; functions of random variables; sampling; central limit theorem.

**Remarks**: This course (ASRM 401/Stat 408) is a basic probability course for actuarial science students; enrollment is restricted to students in the actuarial science program. The main objectives of the course are to

- provide a general introduction to probability theory;
- prepare for more advanced courses in statistics (in particular, Math 409 and Math 469);
- prepare for the Actuarial Exam P.

Instructor | Partha Dey |
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Contact | By and from "@illinois.edu" account. |

Class | MWF 9:00-9:50am in 1000 Lincoln Hall |

Discussion sections | Tuesdays, 2:00-2:50pm, 3:00-3:50pm and 4:00-4:50pm, 1065 Lincoln Hall. The discussion sections will begin January 29, the second week of class. The discussion sections will be led by Tavanaie Marvi Morteza. |

Website | https://faculty.math.illinois.edu/~psdey/ASRM401SP20.html. Discussion Board and exam/hw scores are in the Compass2g site. |

Office Hrs | Wednesday 2-3:30pm or by appointment made via e-mail in 341A Illini Hall |

Textbook | Probability and Statistical Inference, by Hogg, Tanis and Zimmerman, 9th edition. We will cover the first half of the book, Chapters 1-5. The follow-up course, ASRM 402/Stat 409, usually covers the second half of this text, and chances are that you will be able to use the book for both courses. (Note that 409 is under the control of the Statistics Department and will likely be taught by statistics faculty.) |

Prerequisite | Math 241, 242 or 243 (Calculus III), or equivalent. While the first half of the course requires little calculus, the latter part of the course depends in an essential way on calculus, especially multi-variable calculus. Many of the problems in the latter part of the course boil down to computing multiple integrals, and you must be comfortable doing such computations. |

Electronic devices | No use of cell phones or other means of electronic communication during the class. In particular, no texting and no emails are allowed during the class. Laptops are Tablets are allowed only for class purposes. |

Calculators | For Midterm Exams and for the Final Exam, the calculator policy is the same as that used for Actuarial Exams. List of approved calculators can be found here. |

DRES | Please email your DRES letter to me as early as possible in the semester, so that we can make appropriate accommodations. |

Actuarial links |

Homework Policy |
Homework will be assigned weekly on Mondays on this website, to be handed in at the beginning of the Friday lecture. You are encouraged to work together on the homework, but I ask that you write up your own solutions (and write name/s of collaborators) and turn them in separately. Assignments dropped off in mailboxes will not be accepted; however, you can turn in an assignment in my office, 341A Illini Hall, any time before the class hour in which it is due. Late assignments will not be accepted. If you will be absent when homework is due, you must turn in your homework in advance. If you have a legitimate, documentable, excuse for missing an assignment (e.g., illness), I will mark the assignment as excused. An excused assignment will not be counted towards your homework average; by contrast, a missed assignment without a valid excuse will count as 0 points. I will drop your two lowest hw scores and the remaining scores determine your HW grade. | ||||||||
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Exams |
There will be two in-class midterm exams on Wednesdays February 26 and April 8. They will be technically comprehensive, but emphasizing recent material up to the most recent graded and returned homework assignment. The Final Exam is comprehensive and tentatively scheduled for 8:00-11:00 a.m., Tuesday, May 12 in 1000 Lincoln Hall. | ||||||||

Missed exam | Make-up exams will not be given, unless your absence is approved by the Emergency Dean. Travel and leisure plans, even for family events, are never a legitimate reason for missing an exam.
Make-up exams will not be given. If you miss an exam and have a valid excuse (e.g., illness or job/internship interview), documented with a letter from the Dean, I will mark the test as "excused". A test marked as excused is simply ignored in the grade computation, i.e., it is treated as if the test had never taken place. Documentation: An "excused" grade must be requested within a week of the test and must be documented with a letter from the Dean. The Dean's Office is located in 300 Student Services Building, 610 East John St., phone 333-0050. Just see one of the Assistant Deans there, explain your case, and ask that they send a letter to the instructor. The people there deal with these situations all the time and have form letters that they will send to instructors if they believe you have a valid excuse (e.g., illness, but not, for example, oversleeping). One major advantage of going through the Dean's Office is that you can take care of any other missed classes at the same time by having letters sent to all of your instructors.
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Grading Policy | Check your grades at compass2g. Grades will be computed by a weighted average:
Minimum midterm score can be replaced by the final exam if the later is higher. Tentative curve: A(+/-): 90-100%; B(+/-): 80-89%; C(+/-): 70-79%; D(+/-): 60-69%. I may slightly adjust the curve later to see it fit. Two exceptions to the numerical grading for people who take all four exams: anyone who scores 95% on the Final gets an A and anyone whose scores 75% on the Final will pass. (Experience shows that these exceptions rarely make a difference.) |

Homework 1 (due on 01/31): | Homework 1, Solution |
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Homework 2 (due on 02/07): | Homework 2, Solution |

Homework 3 (due on 02/14): | Homework 3, Solution |

Homework 4 (due on 02/21): | Homework 4, Solution |

Midterm 1 (on 02/26): | Information, Midterm 1, Solution |

Homework 5 (due on 03/06): | Homework 5, Solution |

Homework 6 (due on 03/13): | Homework 6 , Solution |

Homework 7 (due on 03/27): | Homework 7, Solution |

Homework 8 (due on 04/03): | Homework 8, Solution |

Midterm 2 (on 04/08): |
Information, Midterm 2, Solution, Quiz 1, Quiz 2 |

Homework 9 (due on 04/17): | Homework 9, Solution |

Homework 10 (due on 04/24): | Homework 10, Solution |

Homework 11 (due on 05/01): | Homework 11, Solution |

Homework 12 (due on 05/06): | Homework 12, Solution |

Final (Due on 05/12): | Information, Final, Solution, Quiz. |